After forecasting performance figures of Spain’s and Portugal’s biggest airlines, we take a look at Europe’s biggest low-cost airlines. Therefore, we analyzed easyJet’s, Ryanair’s, and Wizz Air’s recent performance and predicted their results in September. Moreover, we put those figures into context and provide data from the recent month.
First, however, it is worth and essential mentioning that all figures provided on this blog post are predictions — please keep in mind!
Let’s quickly define the indicators we discuss in this blog post.
We define flight volume as the number of flights the airline will perform in a certain period — in our case, September 2021.
Punctuality counts all flights that arrive on time at their destination airport and puts them into relation to the overall operated number of flights. On-time in this context is defined as +15/-15 compared to the scheduled arrival time. We consider an on-time performance above 90% as good (green), from 80%-90% as ok (orange), and below 80% as weak (red).
Flight Schedule Reliability (Reliability)
Schedule reliability counts the number of actually performed flights in relation to scheduled flights. In other words, the percentage of flights that an airline didn’t cancel. We consider schedule reliability above 95% as good (green), from 90%-95% as ok (orange), and below 90% as weak (red).
easyJet, Ryanair, Wizz Air — Performance Forecast Overview
Before diving into the details of every single airline, we put together the most relevant information below. Unsurprisingly, we forecast Ryanair to remain the biggest of the three airlines. Ryanair will continue to operate twice as many flights as easyJet. In this context, we do not see significant changes. Besides Ryanair, the big low-cost airlines will slightly reduce their flight volume.
Punctuality-wise, we see easyJet as the top performer in September. On the other hand, Ryanair —most likely— will deliver a weaker on-time performance of 88.7% only. That’s quite unusual for Ryanair, which usually performs above 90%. Finally, Wizz Air will deliver the lowest performance of the three airlines. Moreover, we predict an on-time performance reduction compared to August.
In terms of flight schedule reliability, all carriers will continue to maintain solid results above 99%. However, we see Ryanair slightly ahead of easyJet and Wizz Air.
If you want to have a deep dive into the airlines’ August performance, follow the links below:
easyJet Performace Forecast
After three months of incredible growth rates, easyJet will reduce its flight volume for the first time in 2021. However, this is linked to the end of the summer season and the transition to its winter schedule. However, the reduction increases easyJet’s gap compared to a pre-COVID volume.
In terms of punctuality, we predict an improvement of 1.5pp compared to August. As a result, easyJet will deliver an on-time performance above 90%. Regarding flight schedule reliability, we forecast a slight reduction of 0.2pp compared to the previous month. Accordingly, easyJet will maintain reliability of 99.7%.
Ryanair Performance Forecast
Unlike easyJet and Wizz Air, Ryanair won’t reduce its flight schedule in September. However, we don’t see a huge expansion either. So from the current point of view, we forecast a similar volume compared to August.
Concerning on-time performance, we predict a result below 90%, which is quite unusual for Ryanair. Nevertheless, based on the current data, a performance above 90% seems very unlikely. As a result, OTP would decrease by 2% compared to August. On the other side, Ryanair —most likely— will deliver outstanding schedule reliability. Currently, we forecast a cancellation amount for a few flights only.
Wizz Air Performance Forecast
Similar to easyJet, we forecast a flight volume reduction of 5% for Wizz Air too. Accordingly, Wizz Air will operate 22,600 flights in September. As a result, Wizz Air’s on-time performance will remain weaker than easyJet’s and Ryanair’s. Moreover, with 85.5%, we forecast a slight reduction of 0.4pp compared to August.
On the other side, similar to easyJet and Ryanair, Wizz Air will deliver a strong flight schedule reliability. Currently, we forecast a reliability o 99.7%.
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